With the government officially shut down, many people are wondering how this will impact the upcoming cost of living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security, SSI, and VA benefits. If you’re relying on these benefits, it’s completely understandable to feel anxious right now. Let’s walk through what’s happening and what you can expect in the days ahead.
Why October Matters for Your COLA
Every fall, the Social Security Administration announces a new COLA based on inflation data. This increase kicks in with January’s benefits and is meant to help your income keep pace with rising prices.
That number is calculated using data from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which covers July, August, and September. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) usually releases this data in mid-October, which allows the SSA to make the announcement in time for those January adjustments.
How the Shutdown Could Affect That Timeline
Here’s where things get tricky. During the shutdown, the BLS has said it will suspend all operations. That includes economic data releases like the CPI-W, as well as updates to its website. Their official contingency plan even acknowledges that a delay in October’s CPI report could impact the SSA’s ability to announce the COLA.
So, if the shutdown stretches beyond the typical mid-October release window, the announcement may be delayed until the government is funded again and the BLS can resume its work.
Will This Delay Your Payments?
No, your regular payments will still go out. What’s in limbo is whether they’ll include the updated COLA amount in time for January.
Fortunately, we’ve seen this kind of delay before. During the 2013 shutdown, which lasted from October 1 to 17, the BLS delayed its CPI report until October 30. The SSA announced the COLA the same day, and the new payment amounts were applied in January without any issues. That situation shows us it’s possible to have a delay without a disruption to payments.
What Happens If the Shutdown Drags On?
The longest shutdown in U.S. history lasted 35 days, but it happened over December and January—after the COLA had already been announced for that year. If this current shutdown lasts longer than expected, the SSA might have to wait until the BLS resumes operations before announcing the new COLA.
Until that happens, we won’t know what the new COLA will be. There’s been a lot of speculation, but the truth is, we simply won’t know until the CPI-W data is officially released.
What About Medicare Premiums?
Medicare isn’t affected by the shutdown, so your coverage will continue as usual. That said, Medicare Part B premiums are projected to increase in 2026, which is concerning—especially if your benefits don’t increase in time to keep pace.
If you’re worried about rising Medicare costs, now is a good time to compare plans and make sure you’re on the best one for your needs. Licensed agents can help you review your options and potentially save hundreds of dollars per year. They’re currently booking appointments for after open enrollment begins, and the calls usually take about 20 minutes.
Stay Informed—And Cautious
Government websites might not be updated regularly during the shutdown, so expect some communication delays. It’s a good idea to rely on trusted sources for updates rather than speculation or rumors. Be cautious with your budget, and don’t count on the raise until it’s officially confirmed.
If you missed our recent livestream, we’ve broken down the latest shutdown developments there. You can find that full discussion here.
Relief Recap
The COLA increase for Social Security and VA benefits is still expected—but a delay in the announcement is possible if the shutdown continues past mid-October. Your payments will still arrive, but the new amount might not be available right away. Until the government reopens and the data is released, it’s best to stay cautious and prepare conservatively.
We’ll keep you updated as this develops. In the meantime, if you’re concerned about rising Medicare costs, now is a great time to explore your options and find a better plan that fits your needs.